Populism in Western Europe: Comparing Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands by Teun Pauwels

Author:Teun Pauwels [Pauwels, Teun]
Language: eng
Format: epub
Tags: Political Science, General
ISBN: 9781317653912
Google: dmUtBAAAQBAJ
Goodreads: 28024917
Publisher: Routledge
Published: 2013-10-11T00:00:00+00:00

Results

Table 6.1 presents the results of a logistic regression where 1 equals a vote for LDD and 0 a vote for another party. First, only socio-demographic variables are introduced, then attitudes and finally a mixed model. The results show that gender is not a significant variable. Furthermore, both models suggest that younger voters have a high probability of voting for LDD. This corroborates the findings from a national election study in 2007 (Swyngedouw, 2008). Concerning education we see that, relative to the highly educated, the lower educated are 2.6 times more likely to vote for LDD. This effect disappears, however, once we control for attitudes in model 3. With regard to occupation it is difficult to draw a clear conclusion. While the odds ratios and significance indicate that particularly the blue-collar workers and self-employed are overrepresented, this is also the case for other categories. Similar to LPF, it seems that LDD does not receive support from one specific social group or class.

Concerning socio-demographic variables, we find furthermore that unemployment status or membership of a trade union do not significantly predict LDD voting. In line with expectations we find that nonreligious voters are more likely to vote neoliberal populist compared to regular churchgoers. However, this effect disappears once attitudes are controlled for. While some of these insignificant results might be explained by the low number of cases, the low R2 (.09) nonetheless illustrates the limited explanatory power of socio-demographic variables.

In model 2 and 3 it is explored to what extent attitudes play a role in LDD voting. As expected, the party of Dedecker draws disproportionate support among political distrusting voters (see also Hooghe, Marien and Pauwels, 2011). A second attitude that is relevant relates to the general left-right positioning. Voters positioning themselves more to the right are more inclined to vote for LDD. The taxes versus spending hypothesis is not supported, however, suggesting that neo-liberal attitudes do not play a role in predicting LDD support.

Anti-immigrant attitudes appear to be an important reason for voters to support LDD in both models. Authoritarianism significantly decreases the likelihood of LDD voting, which might be explained by the liberal ideology of the party. Somewhat more remarkably, those who are convinced that European unification has gone too far are less likely to vote neoliberal populist. Although particularly Dirk-Jan Epping presented LDD as a Eurosceptic party, this was not followed by the electorate. What also might play a role is that opposition to Europe is hardly a relevant issue in Belgian politics (Deschouwer and Van Assche, 2008). Finally, it appears that respondents who prefer more decision making through referendums are more likely to support Dedecker’s party. The R2 of model 2 is .18, suggesting that attitudes are more important than socio-demographic factors to explain neoliberal populist support.

Table 6.1 Logistic regression of LDD voting in 2009

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